Fantasy Football Draft Geek

Probably the single most important thing you need in order to help you win your fantasy league is a set of good projections. How else are you going to rate a players performance???

As stated in a previous post, I decided to use several sources for my projections. This, in my mind, helps for a couple reasons:

1. Certain sources tend to go on a hunch in the hopes they are right and recognized the next year as the "go to" source. In reality, that player may be deserving of a slight bump, but not to the degree that the source is claiming.
2. If I tend to agree with one source more than another I can easily weight the averages.

Here comes the geeky stuff:
I take the projections I gather from various sites and import them into my excel spreadsheet on a new tab (one for each source). I then create a formula to calculate that players projected points using that particular source and my selected leagues scoring.


On each position tab I then do a lookup in the projection tabs and return the result.


As you can see this gives me a quick and easy view of the players projected points using each of my sources and an average. I have also added a "Quality of Projection"(QOP) score. If the projections are fairly consistant for a particular player it will have a higher QOP score. If the projections vary wildly then the QoP will be lower.

This can be important in deciding how risky of a pick you are making. If all of the sources project about the same number of points it is a safer bet that the player will produce around those numbers. If the projections are very different there is more uncertainty on how that player will perform.

I personally tend to go with more of the safer bet, but you have to go with your gut sometimes.

Projections are at the root of just about all analysis I do... which is why they are so important. Are they always right? Absolutely not... but there has to be a starting point, and this is it.

Well, my first draft is in the books!

If you read my last post you know that this was an online draft in which many people allow yahoo to pick for them based on a ranking list. As I mentioned in that post, yahoo picks starting lineups first and then fills in the bench. This means that kickers and defenses go WAY early.

I knew this would happen and came up with the strategy to pretty much take whoever was left at the end. I wanted to take my defense on my second to last pick, but I ended up taking it a couple rounds sooner because surprisingly Yahoo's logic started picking backup defenses before I had one!

This league has 14 teams (bigger than I prefer). I was picking in the 11th spot... a spot which I really dreaded until my first pick came up. The biggest shock of the night was that Tom Brady was still available at the 11th pick! A complete no-brainer. The reason this happened is because Brady was listed at #9 in yahoo's default rankings and the 10th and 11th picks in front of me were actually logged in, and intentionally passed on Brady. I personally do not believe Brady will repeat last year, but there is no denying he is an excellent QB and represents great value as the 11th pick.

In this league QBs are also more important than any other position (yes including RBs). In my analysis of the scoring system of this league, I realized that QBs score way more points than RBs and after the top 4 QBs there is a major dropoff in points. My strategy going in was to obtain one of my top 4 QBs. I thought at 11th pick I could grab Peyton Manning at that position... To my amazement Manning was taken before Brady. If both had been taken (as I was fully expecting) I probably would have taken the best RB and on my board and grabbed a QB with my second pick.

As with any draft, there are things you wish you could change. The pick I "might" want back was my TE. From my analysis, TEs actually score the least amount of points in this league. As expected (because of yahoo's draft logic) TEs started going way to early. In a panic, I chose to take the top TE on my list (Jason Witten). I don't necessarily regret this pick as I think he will have a good year. I think however I could have nabbed a perfectly decent TE a round later and had a little better depth... only time will tell.

For those that are curious here is my team in the order they were picked:

1-11 - Tom Brady
2-4 - Maurice Jones Drew
3-11 - Plaxico Burress
4-4 - Lee Evans
5-11 - Matt Forte
6 - 4 - Jason Witten
7 -11 - Julius Jones
8 - 4 - Nate Burleson
9 - 11 - Philip Rivers
10 - 4 - Chris Johnson
11 - 11 - Colts
12 - 4 - Sidney Rice
13 - 11 - Ben Utecht
14 - 4 - Shaun Suisham

Overall I think I did pretty well.... Keep in mind this is a 14 team league, so the team may not look as good as your 8 - 10 team league.

Time will tell... time will tell

I apologize for the lack of posts recently. My first fantasy football draft is coming up this Friday, so I am scrambling to make sure my research is in order and I am ready to go. This is my first year in this league so I am a little unsure of the competition.

It is an online draft. I prefer a live draft (actually sitting in a room with people), but I will take this over a auto-draft any day. I was talking to a friend of mine who has been in the league for a couple of years and he says only about half of the people even log in to do the draft. The other half just lets the site pick for them based on the rankings they provide.

This is an absolutely horrible idea for them... but great for me, since I will be facing them. The league is run using Yahoo. Here is my understanding of the logic Yahoo uses when drafting based off a members rankings:

1. It will pick the highest ranked player on your list who has not been selected.
2. It will fill your starting lineup first!!

#2 is an absolutely horrible idea. Think about it...
Say you have to start 2 RBs, 2WRs, 1QB, 1TE, 1DEF, and 1 K.
Since yahoo will fill your starting lineup first, you will actually pick your defense in the 7th round, and your kicker in the 8th!! This is an absolutely horrible idea. I never pick a defense before the 10th and the kicker is always my last pick of the draft.

Another thing I dislike about this league so far is how early the draft is. In an ideal world you will have your draft as close to the beginning of the regular season as possible. A lot can happen between now and opening day, including a dreaded season ending injury for your #1 pick. I am praying nothing like this happens... but it is certainly possible.

I will be posting again soon to talk about the process I use for my player projections.... So stay tuned. Also I will be sure to post the results of this draft to let you know how I faired.

While I don't believe past performance should be the sole basis to rank your players, it does provide some useful insight. Past performance is a tricky thing. A player’s situation changes from year to year:

1. The player could see more (or less) playing time.
2. The player could be with a different team or different team makeup.
3. The player could have been injured in a previous year which accounts for less productivity

My point is that many factors go into a player’s performance from year to year. Despite these differences I still include past performance in my ranking spreadsheet (MS Excel). I feel it can be one more bit of info that can be used when deciding between similar players.

One important thread that you will see run through all of my posts is that it is very important to make your rankings specifically for your leagues scoring system. Past performance is no different.

What do you really want to know when you look at a player’s past performance? You want to see how that player would have done in your league in previous years… Right?

Here is a screenshot of part of my “Settings” tab that I use in my spreadsheet. As you will see I have a column for each league I am in. That column contains info on that league and, most importantly, scoring rules. You will see here that “League A” only gives 4 points for a Passing TD (PaTD) as opposed to “League B” which gives 6 points for a Passing TD. This can be a huge difference in how you rank your QBs in your overall ranking list. The “Current Settings” column has a dropdown in which I can select the league I want the spreadsheet to calculate for.



I then have another worksheet (tab) that contains the stats of all players over the last 3 seasons. In that worksheet I have columns that use those stats, combined with the scoring system that is currently selected, to calculate how many points that player scored using this scoring system.


The relevance of Past Performance may be debatable, but I do find it useful when I go to tweak my rankings… Just keep in mind their limitations!